Note: All figures apply to Upcomers Prediction Markets simulated evaluation accounts. These are simulated funded accounts, not real-money betting.
Risk limits keep the game fair. They cap how much profit a single call can contribute, and they cap how much you can have riding on the table at once. Know them before you trade and nothing here surprises you.
There are three limits to understand: the per-question profit cap, the related-event profit cap, and open exposure limits. This article covers all three, plus how we handle abnormal markets.
Countable vs Non-Countable Profit
Every profit cap works the same way. Profit up to the cap is countable. Profit above the cap is non-countable.
Non-countable profit is excluded from three things:
Profit-target progress
Payout eligibility
Withdrawable profit
Two rules matter most:
Losses always count in full. A cap never shrinks a loss. It only limits how much profit counts.
Over-cap profit cannot push you over the target. You pass on countable profit only. A single lucky question cannot carry you across the line.
Per-Question Profit Cap
This cap applies first, to each individual question.
Signals caps countable profit at 3% of your initial balance per question. Conviction caps it at 4%.
Account size | Signals (3%) | Conviction (4%) |
$100,000 | $3,000 max countable | $4,000 max countable |
Example on a $100,000 account. You make $5,000 profit on one question.
On Signals, $3,000 counts. The remaining $2,000 is non-countable.
On Conviction, $4,000 counts. The remaining $1,000 is non-countable.
If that same question had lost $5,000 instead, the full $5,000 loss would count.
Related-Event Profit Cap
Some questions are tied to the same real-world event, outcome, source data, or a materially correlated result. When they are, we may treat them as one related event group and cap them together.
Example group, if the questions are materially correlated: "Will Candidate A win?", "Will Candidate B lose?", "Will Party X win the election?", "Will Party Y lose?". Betting the same outcome four ways is still one event.
Signals caps countable profit at 4% of your initial balance per related-event group. Conviction caps it at 6%.
Account size | Signals (4%) | Conviction (6%) |
$100,000 | $4,000 max countable | $6,000 max countable |
How the Two Caps Stack
The order is always the same:
Step 1. Apply the per-question cap to each question first.
Step 2. Then apply the related-event cap to the whole group.
On a $100,000 Signals account, each question can contribute at most $3,000. But the related-event group they belong to can contribute at most $4,000 in total, no matter how many questions are in it. Whichever cap bites first is the one that limits your countable profit.
Open Exposure Limits
Exposure is how much you have riding on open positions right now. These are hard caps. They are enforced twice: when you place the order, and again when the order fills.
If a fill would breach either limit, the order is rejected. There is no soft warning and no overshoot.
Limit | Signals | Conviction |
Per question | 3% ($3,000 on $100k) | 5% ($5,000 on $100k) |
Total open exposure | 8% ($8,000 on $100k) | 12% ($12,000 on $100k) |
On a $100,000 Signals account, no single question can hold more than $3,000 of exposure, and all your open positions together cannot exceed $8,000. On Conviction, that is $5,000 per question and $12,000 total.
Abnormal Markets and Settlement Review
Prices come from the underlying market source, and so do final outcomes. When a market behaves abnormally, we protect the integrity of results.
Upcomers may exclude or adjust profit from markets affected by:
Abnormal pricing
Insufficient or thin liquidity
Delayed or incorrect settlement
Cancelled events
Feed errors or platform errors
We may also apply lower exposure limits to markets that are high-risk, low-liquidity, unclear, restricted, or close to settlement. The caps above are the maximum, not a guarantee, on every market.
Payouts may be held until all relevant outcomes in the cycle are settled and verified, especially for politics and elections, sports, crypto price outcomes, macro events, multi-outcome events, and any market under dispute or delayed resolution.
General Rules Notice
This product, like all Upcomers programs, is subject to our standard trading rules and policies. These include our framework on prohibited strategies and our guidelines on responsible trading and gambling-style behavior, both of which apply across all our products.
We recommend reviewing both articles before you begin trading:
Prohibited strategies: https://help.upcomers.com/en/articles/8703143-what-trading-strategies-are-prohibited-at-upcomers
Rules restricting gambling: https://help.upcomers.com/en/articles/11484528-rules-restricting-gambling
Caps limit your upside per call. Losses always count. Know the line before you trade.